Science full texts on uncertainties in climate sensitivity

October 26, 2007 at 2:24 pm | Posted in Climate science, Perspectives, Reports, Science, Sensitivity, Uncertainties | 1 Comment

The full texts of the report and the perspective are behind a paywall in Science Magazine, so I can link to, but cannot access, them. If you can help me, please, I would be interested to read the PDFs here:


ATMOSPHERE: Call Off the Quest

Myles R. Allen and David J. Frame (26 October 2007)
Science 318 (5850), 582. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1149988]
Summary » | Full Text » | PDF »


Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?

Gerard H. Roe and Marcia B. Baker (26 October 2007)
Science 318 (5850), 629. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1144735]
Abstract » | Full Text » | PDF » | Supporting Online Material »

The SOM is accessible.

Supporting Online Material

Download supplement

Even before reading the report, the definition of feedbacks is worth understanding.  I am used to the electronics definition, which is the opposite of regular usage.

Feedback terminology

In this section we derive the parameters we use in discussing feedbacks. We employ the standard terminology of feedback analysis from electronics (e.g., (1-5)). It is, however, different from the terminology found in much of the climate literature, which reverses the definition of a feedback factor and a gain (e.g., 6).

Especially outside discussions of electronics engineering and climate science, people get mixed messages about feedbacks. Positive feedback is considered good, when your teacher or boss gives it to you 😉

Here are a summary of the perspective and an abstract of the report:

Science 26 October 2007:
Vol. 318. no. 5850, pp. 582 – 583
DOI: 10.1126/science.1149988


ATMOSPHERE: Call Off the Quest

Myles R. Allen and David J. Frame Knowledge of the long-term response of Earth’s climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be less useful for policy-makers than commonly assumed.

1M. R. Allen is in the Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK.
2D. J. Frame is in the Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.

Read the Full Text

Science 26 October 2007:
Vol. 318. no. 5850, pp. 629 – 632
DOI: 10.1126/science.1144735


Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?

Gerard H. Roe* and Marcia B. Baker Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes.

Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

Read the Full Text


1 Comment »

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  1. Hi, do you still need copies of these documents?

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